Florida Housing Market at High Risk of Crash in 2025, CoreLogic Study Finds

Florida’s housing market is facing a potential crash this year, with three metropolitan areas in the state at high risk, according to a new study by CoreLogic. Winter Haven, Tampa, and West Palm Beach are among the top five U.S. markets to watch in 2025, with over a 70 percent chance of price declines.

The slowdown in the Florida housing market comes after years of booming growth, as the influx of out-of-state newcomers has decreased since the pandemic. Affordability issues are also a major factor, with high mortgage rates making it difficult for many aspiring buyers to purchase a property.

As a result, homes in Florida are staying on the market for longer periods without being sold, leading sellers to offer incentives and slash prices to attract buyers. CoreLogic identified Winter Haven, Tampa, and West Palm Beach as the most vulnerable markets, with similar dynamics at play in each.

Tampa, for example, saw a year-over-year home price decline of 0.9 percent in January, with a drop of 1.6 percent between October 2024 and January. The city’s new construction projects have slowed, and rising HOA fees and property insurance premiums are impacting buyers’ purchasing power.

Winter Haven and West Palm Beach are also experiencing price declines, with factors like overheated markets and high property insurance costs contributing to the slowdown. CoreLogic economists predict that price growth will continue to slow throughout 2025, but lower mortgage rates could potentially encourage buyers to enter the market this spring.

Chief Economist at CoreLogic, Selma Hepp, stated that the lack of homebuying demand and falling consumer sentiment are key factors in the current housing market. However, improvements in mortgage rates may help attract buyers back into the market in the coming months.