Future Forecast: Navigating the Challenges of the Tampa Bay Housing Market
Forecasting the Future: St. Petersburg’s Housing Market Faces Challenges Amid Population Growth and Climate Change
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — As Florida’s population continues to swell, the demand for housing is reaching critical levels. By the end of the decade, the state may require over half a million additional homes to accommodate its growing residents, according to a startling estimate from the Florida Apartment Association. This figure is just one of many insights uncovered by 10 Investigates in a comprehensive look at the future of home ownership and renting in the Tampa Bay area.
In the first installment of a monthlong series on affordable housing, the emotional toll of securing a home is evident. Reverend Courtney Jones, a pastor in St. Petersburg, shared the struggles faced by her congregation and family. “So, first off, my emotions just go, like, from sadness to anger,” she expressed. One of her congregants pays $1,450 for a one-bedroom efficiency, forcing him to work into his 70s just to make ends meet. “If we didn’t buy when we bought, we would not be able to live here,” she lamented, highlighting the plight of many in the community.
A recent report from Redfin reveals a widening wealth gap in the housing market, with only 6% of new mortgages last year going to very low-income Americans, defined as those earning under $41,000 annually. In stark contrast, 45% of new mortgages were secured by high-income buyers, whose median income soared to $172,000. The situation is even more pronounced in the Tampa area, where just 2% of new mortgages went to very low-income earners, while a staggering 52% were taken by high-income buyers.
“The demand is tremendous,” said Adam Grenville, president of Great Tampa Realtors for 2024. “With 300 people moving to the Tampa Bay area every day, they need somewhere to live. This will continue to pressure rents, housing availability, and new construction.”
According to a Smart Survey analysis, Florida ranks among the top 10 states projected to have the least affordable housing by 2030, with average home prices expected to reach $712,439 against an average income of $51,377. The Florida Apartment Association estimates that the state must build over 570,000 housing units by 2030 to keep pace with population growth.
While the average rent growth rate for new leases has slowed in more than half of the Tampa Bay area counties, it remains a pressing issue. “We’ve actually seen a pretty significant slowdown in the growth,” noted Brad O’Connor, Chief Economist for Florida Realtors. “Rents are still increasing, but the rate at which they are growing has slowed significantly due to high interest rates.”
As the region grapples with housing challenges, climate change looms large. “Coastal and low-lying areas are going to be affected the most,” warned Cara Woods Serra, director of resiliency at the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council. Rising sea levels and increasing temperatures threaten the very fabric of the community, prompting calls for new housing construction to be directed to higher elevations and inland areas.
Research from Florida State University indicates that as coastal residents seek refuge from flooding, inland communities may face gentrification, driving up property values and rents. Serra identified four neighborhoods in Pinellas County at high risk of displacement, including areas with predominantly Black populations.
Reverend Jones, advocating for change through the organization FAST (Faith and Action for Strength Together), emphasizes the need for accountability from local officials. “Just because it’s not going to change overnight — it’s going to change eventually. And the more we push, the more we’re going to get done,” she asserted.
As St. Petersburg looks to the future, the intersection of housing affordability and climate resilience will be critical in shaping the community’s landscape. The coming years will test the resolve of local leaders and residents alike as they navigate these pressing challenges.