Hurricane Milton: A Major Threat to Tampa Bay with Significant Economic Implications
Hurricane Milton Approaches Tampa Bay: 500,000 Homes at Risk of Storm Surge Flooding
October 7, 2024
As Hurricane Milton intensifies in the Gulf of Mexico, residents of Tampa Bay brace for impact. CoreLogic estimates that approximately 500,000 homes, with a combined reconstruction cost value (RCV) of $123 billion, are at risk of storm surge flooding as the hurricane approaches Florida’s west coast.
Originally classified as a tropical storm, Milton rapidly escalated to hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds reaching a staggering 180 mph, categorizing it as a strong Category 5 storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has placed Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg at the center of its cone of uncertainty, raising alarms about potential catastrophic damage.
CoreLogic’s Hazard HQ Command Central™ has projected insured wind and flood losses from Hurricane Milton to range between $17 billion and $28 billion. This estimate includes damage to residential, commercial, and industrial properties, but does not account for losses to offshore properties or government infrastructure.
The storm’s trajectory has shifted southward, sparing Tampa Bay from the worst of the storm surge, which is expected to be most severe in areas like Sarasota and Naples. However, the potential for significant wind damage remains a concern, particularly for older structures in the densely populated Tampa Bay area.
Storm Surge and Wind Damage: A Dual Threat
The anticipated storm surge could reach heights of up to 12 feet in some areas, with the most extreme flooding expected south of the landfall point. CoreLogic’s analysis indicates that while wind damage will likely account for the majority of insured losses, the impact of storm surge flooding cannot be overlooked.
The unique interaction of Hurricane Milton with a cold front and heavy wind shear has created an unusual wind profile, resulting in stronger winds on the northern side of the storm. This phenomenon could lead to unexpected damage patterns, complicating loss assessments for insurers and homeowners alike.
A Challenging Recovery Ahead
The aftermath of Hurricane Milton poses significant challenges for recovery efforts, especially given that Florida is still reeling from the impacts of Hurricane Helene, which made landfall just two weeks prior. The overlap of damage from both storms will complicate loss attribution and recovery efforts, as many professionals and resources are already stretched thin.
As the storm progresses, CoreLogic’s team is actively monitoring the situation and conducting damage assessments across the affected regions. Preliminary reports indicate that while there has been damage, particularly from wind, widespread structural destruction has not yet been observed in the Tampa Bay area.
Looking Ahead
As Hurricane Milton continues its path toward Florida, residents are urged to stay informed and prepared. The NHC and CoreLogic will provide ongoing updates as the situation develops, and homeowners are encouraged to review their insurance policies to ensure they are adequately covered for potential losses.
For the latest information on Hurricane Milton and its impact, residents can visit CoreLogic’s Hazard HQ Command Central™ and the National Hurricane Center’s website.